Strategy is about making choices. Great choices can only be made if the underlying reasoning is rock solid. That is why we must bring science into the art of strategy. To increase the odds of success, you must work like a scientist by identifying and validating the most critical assumptions that need to hold true for your strategy to work. Do it systematically through carefully designed fact-based tests.
Real strategy is based on validated assumptions.
Dogma core ideas
81% of executives believe that data should be at the heart of all decision-making. We agree and firmly believe that you should take a data-driven approach to strategy. However, according to our experience, the traditional approach is broken. It is fundamentally unscientific.
Most strategies are developed by crunching numbers and studying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Based on the findings and intense discussions, vision and goals are determined, and conclusions about the best strategy are made. It seems like a great approach, and it has been taught at business schools for decades.
But if we think about it, there is a major issue. From a methodological point of view, the approach is flawed and does not adhere to the most basic principles of the scientific method.
The upfront analysis will surely help shape a strategy – a hypothesis about the future. But the up-front analysis does not prove that the suggested strategy is a good choice. To prove the strategy, you must test it like a scientist. In other words, once you have designed a potential strategy, you must ask the fundamental question:
