The disorderly world of global trade

The world has entered an era marked by volatility, geopolitical tension, and economic disruption. From trade disputes and policy reversals to inflation and military conflicts, the once-stable rules of global commerce are rapidly evolving. Companies can no longer rely on reactive strategies alone. The new imperative is to adapt fast, identify opportunity amid the chaos, and act decisively.

This viewpoint outlines a two-part journey: first, sharpening geopolitical foresight; second, converting that insight into action through four strategic plays. Along the way, we highlight key implications for European businesses navigating this uncertain terrain.

Navigating a new era of trade uncertainty

Economic policy volatility is at an all-time high. Major global shocks over the past decades – from Brexit to renewed great-power tensions – have created a trade environment unlike any seen in recent history. The policy landscape is now dominated by unpredictability, transactional nationalism, and sweeping shifts in regulatory and tariff regimes.

In the United States, the trade agenda is increasingly defined by unilateralism and confrontation. Policies designed around self-sufficiency, retaliatory tariffs, and economic decoupling have shifted the operating logic for global firms. For European multinationals, this new stance introduces significant disruption – but also potential opportunity.

The introduction of expansive new US tariffs in 2025 fundamentally reset trade expectations. Immediate effects included downward revisions to growth forecasts and a steep decline in European export optimism. But the broader strategic challenge lies in how businesses adjust their operations, pricing, and supply chains in response to what could be a transitional phase in market conditions.

The European exposure: What’s at stake?

For European companies, the implications of the US policy shift are stark. Tariffs on EU products have soared from a modest average of 1.5% to over 10%, with threats of further hikes reaching as high as 50%. This introduces not just cost pressure but strategic complexity, especially for sectors deeply integrated into global value chains.

Industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, automotive, and machinery face dual exposure: direct vulnerability through exports to the US, and indirect risks from globally sourced components. A sector-by-sector analysis shows where the pain points are most concentrated.

Further, mapping EU exposure to the US market by gross output reveals that sectors with high value-added exports are especially at risk. European leaders must now assess exposure with far more granularity – by product, market, and supply chain – and act accordingly.

The need is clear: assess vulnerability, prioritise exposure hotspots, and redesign strategies before today’s pressure becomes tomorrow’s crisis. And expect trade resilience to become a central pillar of competitiveness in the years ahead.

From insight to action: Four strategic plays

To move from awareness to advantage, companies must act deliberately. Based on our analysis, we identify four strategic plays that can help organisations build resilience and position themselves for success in an increasingly fragmented and uncertain global trade landscape. Each play addresses a core dimension of competitiveness – strategy, pricing, operations, and risk – and outlines how to respond thoughtfully and with strategic intent in the face of ambiguity.

1. Rethinking strategy in an uncertain world

Turbulent times call for a rethink of how companies plan, pivot, and prioritise. The question is no longer whether disruption will occur – but how well-prepared we are when it does.

Companies must ask:

• How do we adapt global strategy as trade rules and tariffs shift unpredictably?
• Which markets or business areas are most vulnerable?
• How can we build in agility without sacrificing long-term focus?

An immediate first step is to stress-test strategy against current volatility and identify the assumptions that no longer hold. Then, organisations should develop forward-looking scenarios to map future policy swings and economic fragmentation. In the longer term, it becomes essential to build a strategy operating model that supports fast, informed decision-making.

Strategic resilience means not only reacting to change but anticipating it – equipping leadership to shift direction with clarity and speed.

2. Competing through tariff-resilient pricing

In a world where policy shifts hit prices overnight, companies need pricing strategies that can absorb shock and stay competitive.

Key questions arise:

• What cost pressures are tariffs creating across our value chain?
• How are competitors adjusting – and are we falling behind?
• Will pricing changes impact customer loyalty or market share?

In the short term, companies must model how much of the tariff cost can be passed on to customers versus absorbed internally. In the medium term, adjustments may require repositioning products or rethinking supply chains. Over the long term, embedding tariff-resilient pricing in contracts and commercial systems becomes essential.

Rather than viewing pricing as static, businesses must embrace pricing agility – knowing that competitive advantage may hinge on how fast and how wisely they respond to cost disruption.

3. Rewiring the supply chain

Once focused on efficiency, supply chains must now be built for resilience. The new imperative is flexibility – being able to reroute, reshore, or buffer when trade barriers arise.

Critical questions to explore include:

• What structural vulnerabilities exist in our supply chain?
• Where should we diversify or localise production?
• Are we overexposed to any single geography or supplier?

A strong response involves modularising design, expanding local supplier bases, and embedding readiness into planning cycles. Diversification is not just about reducing risk but about enabling speed when conditions change.

Organisations that build robust, regionally flexible supply chains will be best positioned to handle the turbulence ahead.

4. Redefining how we assess and act on risk

Traditional risk management is simply no match for the pace and scope of today’s geopolitical shifts. The challenge now is embedding risk thinking into how companies operate daily.

To lead in this environment, companies must ask:

• Are we proactively identifying trade and policy-related risks?
• Can we pivot fast enough when external rules change?
• Do we have the legal, commercial, and operational muscle to respond?

Modern risk response involves mapping exposures, preparing action playbooks, and assigning clear ownership – all before disruption strikes. Here, culture is critical: embedding risk awareness into leadership thinking and strategic planning shifts the response from reactive to anticipatory.

In an age of compounding disruptions, risk is not a department – it is rather a mindset shared across the organisation.

Taken together, these four strategic plays form a blueprint for navigating global trade uncertainty with clarity and confidence. Rather than waiting for stability to return, companies that seize this moment – by reassessing their approach to strategy, pricing, supply chains, and risk – can chart a more resilient path forward. This is a critical window to build long-term resilience while others are still reacting. Why not make the most of it?