Geopolitical shift in US-EU relations

European organisations face significant strategic vulnerability due to their extensive reliance on US-based cloud service providers. Approximately 70% of Europe's cloud infrastructure is controlled by three American companies – AWS, Microsoft, and Google – creating asymmetric dependencies that could be leveraged in trade disputes, regulatory disagreements, or broader geopolitical tensions.

While catastrophic service disruption remains a low-probability scenario, the potential impact on European digital infrastructure, economic competitiveness, and strategic autonomy warrants serious consideration.

This assessment analyses potential risk scenarios, evaluates their impacts across sectors, and presents a comprehensive framework of mitigation strategies at both institutional and organisational levels.

The most effective approach combines EU-level policy measures, technical architecture adaptations and strategic business continuity planning. Organisations are encouraged to implement a risk-based approach that prioritises critical functions, enhances data sovereignty, diversifies cloud providers, and gradually reduces technical lock-in dependencies.